Nikon’s Camera Lineup After Z5II
Now that the Z5II has been announced (post regarding its announcement here), I cannot help but think how the Nikon lineup would shape up to be in the coming years. While it sounds like I am just looking forward to the next new thing (OK I do admit there is a tiny bit of truth in there, but hey I am pretty sure every photographer does have some form of GAS), I do honestly think it is important to look at the lineup from a larger perspective if one is to invest in the ecosystem.
Before I delve any further, I would just like to say these are purely based on my observations and are my own speculations, and hence are by no means a rumor or confirmation of new products.
Let’s start by looking at Nikon’s current lineup of camera bodies. (I will be excluding the RED video-oriented bodies since that is not my specialty and I am unable to speculate anything for those.)
As of writing, for the EXPEED 7 bodies, we have:
Nikon Z9: Flagship model and the only model with integrated vertical grip body; 45.7MP stacked sensor, no mechanical shutter, special AF functions available only to the stacked sensors, dual-axis tilt screen, top LCD, pro controls, dual CFe slots
Nikon Z8: Mini-Z9 (a.k.a Z9 without the grip); 45.7MP stacked sensor, no mechanical shutter, special AF functions available to the stacked sensors, dual-axis tilt screen, top LCD, pro controls, CFe slot + SD slot
Nikon Z6III: All-rounder body that gives a priority to speed and professional video specs; 24.5MP partially stacked sensor, EXPEED 7, vari-angle screen, top LCD, “slightly unfinished firmware” (more on this written here in this post), CFe slot + SD slot
Nikon Zf: All-rounder retro-design body with decent video specs; BSI 24.5MP sensor, EXPEED 7, vari-angle screen, SD slot + microSD slot
Nikon Z5II: All-rounder body with modern video specs; BSI 24.5MP sensor, EXPEED 7, vari-angle screen, dual SD slots
Nikon Z50II: All-rounder APS-C body with decent video specs; BSI 20.9MP APS-C sensor, EXPEED 7, vari-angle screen, single SD slot
And for the EXPEED 6 bodies which have yet to see any replacements, we have:
Nikon Z7II: High resolution body without stacked sensor, and the only FX line not updated to EXPEED 7; BSI 45.7MP sensor, single-axis tilt screen, top LCD, CFe slot + SD slot
Nikon Zfc: Retro-design APS-C body; BSI 20.9MP APS-C sensor, vari-angle screen, single SD slot
Nikon Z30: Compact body without EVF; BSI 20.9MP APS-C sensor, vari-angle screen, single SD slot
So first, let’s deal with the elephant in the room - will there (and should there) be a Z7III?
In my personal opinion, yes. Similar to the Z6II to Z6III upgrade, I highly suspect that the Z7III would come with a new sensor with higher resolution, though not partially-stacked, and definitely not fully-stacked, to keep the Z7-line as the high-resolution line of the Z bodies. Simply put, I think that a theoretical Z7III would be:
Identical body with Z6III; high resolution BSI sensor (61MP? 80MP?), EXPEED 7, vari-angle screen, top LCD, CFe slot + SD slot, slowish (by modern standards) max burst rates, moderate video specs
This would put the Z7III as the high resolution body to go for if high continuous burst speeds and video specs are not the main priority, which is similar to how the 61MP A7RV is marketed for Sony users. By sharing the same body as Z6III, like how Z6II and Z7II were, manufacturing costs can be reduced and many of the accessories can be shared by the two bodies too.
Next let’s take a look at the APS-C bodies.
ZfcII: This is quite a tough one to speculate, because on one hand with the Imaging Cloud and Process Recipes, they do make a retro-styled ZfcII appealing for many of the younger target audience, but on the other hand, a ZfcII, which would theoretically cost a bit more than a Z50II, would be close in price to the full-frame Z5II, and with the cashbacks happening, the Zf as well. In the EXPEED 6 era the Zfc being close to the Z5 in pricing (especially during the latter’s promotions and cashbacks) was still justifiable, since the Z5 had a non-BSI sensor and thus lower maximum burst rates and AF calculations/seconds, resulting in the Zfc being the faster and more responsive camera in addition to its retro looks. However in the EXPEED 7 era, the Z5II has gotten all the speed improvements it needed, and the only selling point of a ZfcII would be its retro design.
If I were to pick a side, I would say the ZfcII is unlikely to happen any time soon, and pretty certain not this year at least. It may come should the market react positively to wanting a retro design EXPEED7 APS-C body, but in my opinion the chances are really slim.
Should a ZfcII arrive within this generation, I would suspect it would just be a Zfc body with Z50II internals (that is to say, same 20.9MP sensor with EXPEED 7, single UHS-II card slot)Z30II: This is an interesting one. I personally like the Z30 for its size and handling, and its autofocus capabilities were actually on the better side as far as EXPEED 6 bodies go, especially for subject detection (Eye-AF). Although being marketed as a camera for vloggers, I had no issues using it for stills and actually really enjoyed having it around me most of the time. (You can read more about my little review on the Z30 here.)
I do not have exact sales numbers of the Z30, but I have definitely heard mixed opinions on this - seems like the larger general electronics retailers do sell quite a bit of them, but the specialized camera stores do not sell as much. Only Nikon would know whether the Z30 was profitable or not - if it was not profitable, I doubt we would see a successor to the Z30.
I personally do believe that a Z30II would happen, and if so, it would be the next APS-C body to be announced. One particular reason I believe so is that there is an increased demand for compact high performance cameras recently, and I think they would be likely to join the bandwagon, especially since the target audience for this would likely to be casual users without any brand preference or brand loyalty, it would make sense to compete for some market share here.
They just have to give the body some minor updates (say a UHS-II slot?), make some button placement changes, and jam all the Z50II internals in it, and call it a day.
Hence I suspect it would have the same vari-angle screen, the same 20.9MP sensor, EXPEED 7, single UHS-II card slot.
Now that I am done discussing my opinions on the remaining EXPEED 7 updates, please allow me to go on to discuss and speculate how else would the lineup shape up to be.
I need to emphasize again, these are really just my speculations, so please do not go around spreading this like wildfire. (At least at time of writing, there are no concrete evidence or rumors or anything)
I think (that is the keyword, think) there would be 2 more camera lines, and I am just throwing out the names here just because it makes sense.
Z3: Compact EVF-less version of the Z5II; similar to how the Z30 is to the Z50. Would feature dual SD slots and use EN-EL15c batteries.
Z80: Think of it as the mini Z8, like how the Z50II is to the Z5II. High speed high performance APS-C camera, featuring 20.9MP APS-C stacked sensor, no mechanical shutter, EXPEED 7, CFe slot + SD slot, uses EN-EL15c batteries. Comes with the pro controls of the Z8.
As for the flagship Z9, I suspect we would see the 45.7MP stacked sensor used for one more generation before it gets a major upgrade, and thus, this is how I think the Z9II (and Z8II for that matter) would look like:
Z9II: Same 45.7MP stacked sensor without mechanical shutter, either dual EXPEED 7 or new EXPEED 8, upgrades include pre-capture RAW, higher stills FPS for RAW (currently maxed out at 20FPS), wide-gamut brighter EVF from the Z6III, dual CFe 4.0 slots. Depending on how the CPUs are built, it may be possible to maintain the dual-stream technology (for blackout-free EVF) and also increase the amount of AF calculations/second. Video wise it should see modern codecs in built, ability to record N-RAW internally, and ability to record to two cards simultaneously.
Z8II: Same as above, minus the integrated vertical grip, and uses EN-EL15c batteries instead. Would have 1x Cfe 4.0 slot + 1x SD UHS-II slot, thus making dual video recording not possible for some modes.
And since we know that the current 20.9MP APS-C sensor is based on the FF 45.7MP FX sensor, when the theoretical Z7III arrives, we should see a new APS-C sensor as well, and that should go into the next crop of APS-C bodies (say Z50III or something)
Final disclaimer: this is not a rumors post, but just my speculations, so yeah, let’s definitely revisit this page some time down the line to see if any of these actually materialize!